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Post by tiger4lyfe on Jun 25, 2020 14:15:53 GMT -5
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Post by tiger4lyfe on Jun 25, 2020 14:25:46 GMT -5
Since I saw bfgrad mention nursing homes, a little update on Friendship Ridge. All residents are clear of coronavirus as of June 15, no active cases with the residents. 2 staff members were out of work still with it as of 6/15. The state sending that manager in and the guard being there for a week or two definitely got the admins to change the way they were doing things and take more measures. My wife has been tested 3 times in the last month or so, all clear so far.
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Post by bfgrad on Jun 25, 2020 16:04:32 GMT -5
Good to hear about Friendship Ridge, T4L. I'm glad you, your wife and family are staying infection free.
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Post by hs on Jun 25, 2020 18:38:22 GMT -5
Disagree with you on mail in voting T4L but I am very glad to hear about your update on Friendship Ridge.
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Post by yig on Jun 26, 2020 8:42:24 GMT -5
here are a couple of more touching that issue: fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter-registrations-are-way-way-down-during-the-pandemic/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-choice/The first one is more about lost momentum on voter registrations once the pandemic hit. It obvously has to do more with the pandemic than it does voter suppression or the candidates themselves...it is just speaking more of reprecussions as well in what would usually be a high voter turnout time and the fact that some of these groups that push for voter registration are running out of time and will likely never get some of these people because of shutdowns (i.e. closing festivals and libraries and DMVs). This one stuck out to me also because it was a Brennan Center study used for much of the data and info. The second one is more about the Southern Strategy approach (including voter suppression) and aftermath and reluctance of the GOP to change even when the writing on the wall said otherwise (as recently as 2013 Reince Prebius promised a "more inclusive" GOP for example after Mitt Romney's loss to President Obama). Kind of a long read though as it is pretty thorough. Here was one exerpt however...this one does not address mail-in fraud however, only ID/ID fraud: Levitt, who is now a constitutional law scholar at Loyola Marymount University, did an investigation into cases of election fraud that could have been stopped by the use of voter ID, and found, out of about a billion ballots cast, only 31 instances from the period of 2000 to 2014. The analysis and its results prompt an obvious question: If fraud is so rare, what’s the actual purpose of ID laws?
Which gets back to me understanding the paranoia, but again, it is just that, paranoia, because there is very little to substantiate said paranoia, and the fact that (bf pointed out in the old boards) that the most notable and egregious example of known election fraud during the 2000s being a Republican in North Carolina. My personal worry is combining the two stories with both the uncertainty and the will to suppress votes. There are X amount of people such as myself and hs who 100% see voting as a civic duty and will vote no matter what and no matter how almost regardless of circumstances, but there are X amount of people right now who probably plan to vote or would like to vote but have not yet registered, have not yet checked to see if they were purged off of the state's voter registration list, do not have a plan nor do they understand mail-in voting, and when it comes closer to election day will be left out for one reason or another. I have no idea if this will be a high turnout or low turnout election. Pre-pandemic I would have guessed high turnout but now it is difficult to tell with just over 4 months to go. One last thing to chew on is Ohio voter turnout for general electons for POTUS and for midterms (which coincide with Gubernatorial) just to get an idea on turnout percentages. www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/election-results-and-data/historical-election-comparisons/voter-turnout-in-general-elections/Considering that OH has just over 9 million adults they are getting between 7-8 million for higher turnout elections (Trump/Obama/Obama/W) which is impresive and shows the importance of turnout, as OH has voted for the winner every time and was the tipping point state for both W in 2004 and Obama in 2012.
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Post by KidRaven on Jun 26, 2020 9:24:10 GMT -5
I fall in the same camp that I feel it is my civic duty to vote and do some in every election whether local or National. I was so excited when I was able to register to vote and even did it my signing up through WWE's SmackDown The Vote campaign. One of the prouder moments I had was when my mother registered to vote 4 years ago. For the longest time I was the only member of my immediate family to vote and seeing someone sign up made me proud.
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Post by bfgrad on Jun 26, 2020 12:29:34 GMT -5
It's not just voters, but volunteers are needed to work the polls. Many are in the "high risk" group. While we in Beaver county had a full compliment of poll workers and all of precincts open, that wasn't true everywhere.
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Post by hs on Jun 27, 2020 7:38:56 GMT -5
Any way we vote in this election, I have been saying for a long time now and have come to the conclusion that there is no way Trump will win re election. I am still casting my vote for Trump but there is just too much negativity against him to win. You can say it was made by him but the media spews venom at Trump 24 hours a day. Biden doesn't even have to campaign, the media is doing the job for him
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Post by yig on Jun 27, 2020 8:43:06 GMT -5
That's awesome! My mother was the same way...she used to vote in the early 80s but I am thinking that those elections being so non-competitive convinced her that her vote doesn't count. She never once voted in the 90s or 00s...not until 2016 did she vote again. Unrelated to that but here is another one about voter suppression (in Kentucky), this one from right leaning Forbes: www.forbes.com/sites/sethcohen/2020/06/22/kentucky-and-jim-crow-2-dot-0/#7aba80462219
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Post by yig on Jun 27, 2020 9:03:23 GMT -5
I definitely wouldn't say that.
As much as everything that he has touched has turned to poop in 2020 (his pandemic response, his pandemic press conferences, the economy tanking, his response to the George Floyd riots, his own Supreme Court appointee Justice Gorsuch handing him a defeat, his disjointed campaign against Biden to date (i.e. instead of spending more time attacking Biden he wasted 15 minutes defending the West Point ramp story lol), etc (I'm probably missing something), he is only a few points beind in most swing states and definitely has a track to winning reelection, especially if people are scared to vote because of the pandemic and are not able to take advantge of mail-in. All that it would take would be a couple of good jobs reports, a nasty debate or two that even if he loses he gets in his taglines that sink in with his voters, and low voter turnout and he can absolutely win the same election that he did in 2016 (lose popular but win Electoral College by winning every important swing state). His base would support him if he raped their wives and daughters right in front of him lol. He has about as solid of a floor as any President in recent memory. This election will be close on his floor supporting him alone.
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Post by baldwintrack on Jun 27, 2020 10:29:11 GMT -5
I think it almost has to be close. There are only 3-5 states that could switch from 2016. PA, MI, WI, AZ and maybe NC. I don’t think Trump is in danger of losing OH or FL and don’t think Biden can gain TX or GA.
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Post by hs on Jun 27, 2020 13:55:21 GMT -5
I will be absolutely shocked if Trump is able to pull out a win in November. If the Democrats keep the House and possibly take the Senate and the White House, I cant imagine how they will try to transform this country! The House is already trying to push a vote to make Washington D.C. a state. Why? Because MaXine Waters says it is racist that it is not a state but we know it is just a push for more Democratic House and Senate seats.
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Post by crabber on Jun 27, 2020 17:29:36 GMT -5
D. C. should have been a state a long time ago period
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Post by hs on Jun 27, 2020 17:57:34 GMT -5
D. C. should have been a state a long time ago period It’s Unconstitutional. Period Our Founding Fathers were a lot smarter than our representatives in government today
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Post by yig on Jun 28, 2020 7:54:55 GMT -5
I think it almost has to be close. There are only 3-5 states that could switch from 2016. PA, MI, WI, AZ and maybe NC. I don’t think Trump is in danger of losing OH or FL and don’t think Biden can gain TX or GA. I don't completely agree. I would say that FL is more tossup than you are giving credit for and GA is slightly in play given the national climate (although his only path here still IMO is if Stacy Abrams is his VP nominee). TX is no shot. OH is definitely in play but I will stay leans pink. I guess given all of the states mentioned plus Iowa which looks to be in play I would go (in order of most likely Trump to most likely Biden: TX, GA, IA, OH, NC, FL, WI, PA, AZ, MI TX is safe...just too big and too many resources that Biden would need to spend in an election where he is going to be badly outspent, and TX marches to their own tune in general...that national climate IMO means less there than it does in, say, OH. GA very likely Trump...Biden only wins this in a landslide. IA probably Trump...farmers still like him. OH/NC are probably the biggest bellweathers this time around. OH regarding messaging (DeWine's handling of the pandemic has had him running regularly 30 points ahead of Trump for example, Kasich won his last election here in a landslide and won the primary vs Trump...Ohioans appreciate governance, which Biden's promise of a return to normalcy might resonate here, but then again, the election isn't Trump vs DeWine), while NC is more about changing electoral map (the younger and more educated NC becomes the bluer that they get, but I will not believe it until I see it...granted, they went Obama once, but so did Indiana for instance) FL I would put as more likely for Biden to win than any of the above states...polling there is going really well for him, better than Hillary at any given time, and FL is a state that is heavily polled WI/PA definitely could still go Trump...these are more of the bellweathers if Trump's backers truly are the "silent majority" who approve of his anecdotal "law and order". AZ I am pretty much chalking up to the Dems this time around...Trump is uniquely unpopular there and polling for Biden has been regularly strong MI looks to be pretty safe Biden as they like a pro-union Democrat
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