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Post by yig on Aug 8, 2020 11:08:33 GMT -5
I don't doubt that. From afar I am reading/seeing/observing the same thing. Pennsylvanians (particularly aside from Philly) seem to be more rebelious towards Covid-19 restrictions etc. Aside from that fracking is near and dear to their hearts. I definitely think that PA is redder than the polling indicates, although Wolf did win in a landslide in his last election. While it is "Biden Country" in theory Trump also has a much stronger ground game than Biden does because of early money and the obvious importance.
Conversely Ohio (again, anecdotally speaking) is definitely more "sick and tired" of Trump in suburban areas. His base of course is with him (they are the ones who will walk 10 miles in a hail storm to vote for him even after actually witnessing him deflower their daughter and deficate on their wives only a week earlier lol). However Ohioans as a whole still seem to be trusting and supporting their governor (who is popular with a majority of Republicans and with most Democrats) and are seeing the contrast of "real leadership" vs a reality TV host vaguely pretending to lead. They are more concerned with Pennsylvanians with Covid-19 and are listening to their governor, Lt. Governor, public health director, etc. What is also working against Trump is that the state level Republican Party (mostly Pro-Trump, anti-maskers, etc) are being paralyzed a bit by the largest corruption scandal in state history. Hard to say how much down ballot hurts the top of the ballot, but it has more to do with attitudes right now. The closest doppelganger is 2006 when D Ted Strickland defeated the incumbent party (but not the incumbent because he was term limited) R Bob Taft by a landslide. Trump is not as unpopular as Taft was, but Trump is uniquely unpopular compared to most. Finally, the listing as Cleveland as one of the cities needing federal help because of crime is just annoying to DeWine/Mayor Jackson/and by extension the citizens of Northeast OH. Northeast Ohioans feel that their biggest city is safe or relatively safe. As a whole definitely less Trump signs than last time around, and definitely a higher perecentage of the yard signs being Biden in suburban/residential areas.
I would still put PA into light blue coin flip territory, and OH into pink coinflip territory, both because of logic, but given how goofy this election will already be (because of the pandemic, more mail-in balloting, a distrust by many of polling, etc) I would not be shocked at any of the possible results (Trump wins both close, Biden wins both close, things hold chalk and Trump wins OH/Biden PA, or the less likely but still possible Trump wins PA/Biden OH).
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Post by stones on Aug 8, 2020 11:34:34 GMT -5
hs I have to agree It was nice to see beating the estimate by .5% These numbers were taken when Cal Texas and others were shutting back down somewhat And to think many states need to open I mean a restaurant at 25% LOL
Did you see Cuomo begging the Rich to come back He will cook buy drinks ETC LOL Dude they not coming back
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Post by bfgrad on Aug 8, 2020 11:38:50 GMT -5
What you have to remember about PA is that 2/3rds of the state population lives Harrisburg and east. Trump is highly unpopular there. There're still plenty of rednecks here in western PA, but there's more opposition to fracking and especially the pipelines than people realize. Of course plenty of bigots here, too, that take to Trump's race fear-mongering.
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Post by Downriver on Aug 8, 2020 11:57:46 GMT -5
Exactly BF. Also Trump largely won PA because Hilary was disliked nearly as much as Trump. That isn't happening this time with Biden. Plus he was born in PA and will kill it up in the Scranton area. Given the fact Trump won PA by less than 7/10th of one percent, his outlook is not good in PA.
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Post by coach99 on Aug 8, 2020 20:39:18 GMT -5
To me the reason that Trump is 'behind' in all the polls is that people don't want to admit they are going to vote for him..even in 'anon' polls. With the current atmosphere in the nation, people are afraid to let anyone know fearing reprisals by the unhinged left. Also, I really can't no understand how anyone can vote for Biden with his current state of decline. Can't people see that they are going to force a VP on him to take over his Presidency. Maybe it will get me the Old "nation's wing nut award', but I can see him 25th Amendment-ed out of office in a few months. No matter how the election turns out....it ain't gonna be pretty and we will NEVER be the same again.
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Post by bfgrad on Aug 9, 2020 2:52:56 GMT -5
Trump voters are loud and proud.
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Post by bfgrad on Aug 9, 2020 2:53:36 GMT -5
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Post by hs on Aug 9, 2020 6:47:55 GMT -5
Exactly BF. Also Trump largely won PA because Hilary was disliked nearly as much as Trump. That isn't happening this time with Biden. Plus he was born in PA and will kill it up in the Scranton area. Given the fact Trump won PA by less than 7/10th of one percent, his outlook is not good in PA. I think it is going to be alot closer in PA thank people think. I do agree with there is more opposition to fracking and pipelines than people believe but as long as Joe Biden keeps opening his mouth, the polls will slowly tighten like they are now. I like when it's said that Trump can deflower my daughter and deficate on my wife and I would still vote for him. Just makes me sound like a stupid robot that can't think for himself. That's why Trump supporters aren't loud and proud and we typically keep quiet until it is time to vote. Joe will keep going out there and say "if you don't vote for me, you aint black" or "Latinos are different than blacks, they have different views and opinions". These aren't mistakes that Joe makes, these are his views because he thinks blacks will vote Democrat no matter what. Or when he is getting interviewed and is asked about if he has taken a cognitive test and he says no even though not barely a week earlier he says he takes them all the time but then asks the black reporter that's like asking if you took a drug test before this interview. Are you a junkie? And ya stones, those unemployment numbers could've been better but that was right in the middle of alot of bars and restaurants shutting back down and people going back on unemployment. And it seems like Cuomo and DeBlasio are working against each other. Cuomo wants people to come back and DeBlasio has his forces out quarantining people if they step foot in the state.
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Post by yig on Aug 9, 2020 8:44:18 GMT -5
Exactly BF. Also Trump largely won PA because Hilary was disliked nearly as much as Trump. That isn't happening this time with Biden. Plus he was born in PA and will kill it up in the Scranton area. Given the fact Trump won PA by less than 7/10th of one percent, his outlook is not good in PA. IF I recall however Hillary actually did very well in the Philadelphia area (as in voter turnout was high and of course in her favor). It was Western PA Trump voters who helped tip the election towards Trump. Maybe I'm misremembering however. I agree that logically his outlook is not good but I think that it will be very close.
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Post by bfgrad on Aug 9, 2020 9:02:48 GMT -5
This isn't 2016 when Trump was coming off The Apprentice. As in any reality TV show, the truth is often far different about the stars than it's portrayed in the show. That was true of Trump. Many voters bought the myth that he was a business success and took a chance on him based on that. Thus the anecdotal evidence some Trump voters wouldn't tell pollsters they were voting for him. After 4 years, he's shown everyone who he really is. No unknowns this time around.
YIG, after the 2016, I took a look at the vote by county on the PA dept of state election page. Josh Shapiro got more votes than any candidate on the ballot. I looked at 10 counties where Hillary underperformed Shapiro (i.e., got fewer votes). If she had only gotten the same number of votes as Shapiro, she'd have won the state. Also, while turnout was pretty high in Philadelphia (60%), it didn't match the rest of the state. If it had, she'd have won.
I suppose for anyone wanting to talk about the election, starting a thread about it in the politics forum is the best way.
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Post by baldwintrack on Aug 9, 2020 9:10:37 GMT -5
My sense is that people feel Democrat’s have duped them over the virus and they are upset they took something so seriously when in reality it isn’t a threat to most people. I think people will vote for Trump because they don’t like being told something is happening when they can see that it’s not, at least in western PA.
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Post by yig on Aug 9, 2020 9:16:33 GMT -5
Unrelated but a good read on ad spending in Michigan and Team Trump haulting ad spending there (for now). www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.htmlMakes sense. I think that historically all of us on here except maybe Ryan/Stones had MI pegged as the most likely of the states that went Obama twice then Trump 2016 (FL/OH/IA/PA/WI) to flip back to the Democratic nominee (so long that it wasn't Bernie Sanders or someone of that ilk). With that said as we learned last time around it isn't necessarily money spent. Trump can and is outspending Biden nearly everywhere else, but this is one state that Biden obviously has targeted as THE "must win" for him to have a chance (PA is probably #2 on that list). But no matter how unpopular Trump polls, no matter how popular their Democratic governor is, no matter how many House seats they flipped from red to blue in 2018, etc, there is still that "mindless robotic Trump voter" as hs put it who will make a state like this close and likely in play when he possibly resumes ad spending closer to election day. For now it appears that he is turning to ramping up some ad spending to OH and GA, two pink states that are now "toss-ups" that he absolutely needs if he is going to win re-election. Another tid bit (not named in the article) but I guess that Biden is spending a little bit in Texas so I would expect Trump to ramp up spending there just a bit. But back to Michigan if Trump does stay out and concede it I am curious where the voting tallys fall. Or will spending even matter? That is my point I guess.
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Post by yig on Aug 9, 2020 9:23:31 GMT -5
Thanks bf for doing that research!
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Post by stones on Aug 9, 2020 10:18:51 GMT -5
God Just for the record I could care less if Trump wins/loses My life will certainly go on I said if he keeps everything he only has to win Pa Wisconsin OR Michigan Trust me Michigan is the last thing on my mind Biden said he will fix everything so I am Good The guy cant even read a teleprompter but he will fix all problems This I have to see LOL Part of me wants him to win I think Coach nailed it earlier I wish he would say more
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Post by hs on Aug 9, 2020 10:49:16 GMT -5
Unrelated but a good read on ad spending in Michigan and Team Trump haulting ad spending there (for now). www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.htmlMakes sense. I think that historically all of us on here except maybe Ryan/Stones had MI pegged as the most likely of the states that went Obama twice then Trump 2016 (FL/OH/IA/PA/WI) to flip back to the Democratic nominee (so long that it wasn't Bernie Sanders or someone of that ilk). With that said as we learned last time around it isn't necessarily money spent. Trump can and is outspending Biden nearly everywhere else, but this is one state that Biden obviously has targeted as THE "must win" for him to have a chance (PA is probably #2 on that list). But no matter how unpopular Trump polls, no matter how popular their Democratic governor is, no matter how many House seats they flipped from red to blue in 2018, etc, there is still that "mindless robotic Trump voter" as hs put it who will make a state like this close and likely in play when he possibly resumes ad spending closer to election day. For now it appears that he is turning to ramping up some ad spending to OH and GA, two pink states that are now "toss-ups" that he absolutely needs if he is going to win re-election. Another tid bit (not named in the article) but I guess that Biden is spending a little bit in Texas so I would expect Trump to ramp up spending there just a bit. But back to Michigan if Trump does stay out and concede it I am curious where the voting tallys fall. Or will spending even matter? That is my point I guess. No, I didn’t put it that way. You’re idiotic comment put it that way. Please don’t try and twist it around like I’m trying to call the Trump supporters mindless robots
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